Storm chances sharply increase

An early summer pattern continues to descend upon the Bluegrass State and indeed, it looks like we’ll get a head start on mid-June a bit early this year.

Wednesday and Thursday

We continue to watch a cold front that brought severe weather to the Great Lakes and Chicagoland area work toward the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday. We’ll watch weakening storms head our direction early in the day, but severe weather doesn’t look likely at this time. However, as highs get up into the middle 80s, we very well could see another complex of storms developing and pushing toward the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Nothing is set in stone, but should we see storms, we could see some damaging winds and heavy rain accompany them. We’re only in the middle 60s as showers and storms slowly work out.

However, they won’t work out for long. The frontal boundary from Wednesday will get stuck and kind of wash out on top of us as the upper support moves away from us. This will allow that boundary to become a focal point for more disturbances to bring us showers and storms as we head into the day on Thursday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but we’ll have to watch for heavy rain again and the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Outside of that, expect slightly milder highs near 80º or so thanks to the clouds in place. Overnight, showers should start to diminish a little, but the chance won’t go away completely as lows fall back into the lower 60s.

Into Memorial Day Weekend: Friday and Saturday

This pattern keeps on keeping on as we head into the day on Friday as another disturbance rides its way into the Ohio Valley. More showers and storms will continue to push through the region. Some of them could be strong to briefly severe, but I still think heavy rain will be a big calling card for us as we head into the holiday weekend. Highs make it into the lower 80s. More showers and storms continue overnight as lows only fall into the lower 60s.

Sick of the pattern yet? Because it looks to repeat itself into Saturday, with more showers and storms possible. Again, heavy rain and brief gusty winds look to be a threat with any storm that gets going, but I don’t expect widespread severe weather. Nor do I expect to see it rain all day. Some dry time and early sunshine could get highs back up into the muggy middle 80s during the day, and back into the middle 60s overnight.

Sunday and Memorial Day

I would have a plan B for any outdoor activities you may have planned as we head into the back half of Memorial Day weekend. Again, I don’t expect constant rain, but the potential will be there for storms that contain heavy rain and brief gusty winds. The latest model guidance is suggesting another potential for strong to severe storms as we head into the day on Sunday. It's still a little far out, but we'll need to keep an eye on it. More storm chances should continue into Memorial Day before a brief break moves in for part of next week.

Don't forget, we've got updates off the website too, on the social media site formerly known as Twitter here. That's where you'll find the latest updates when things get stormy too!

Have a good one!